If not Kamala Harris, who else could be the Democratic nominee in November's election?
NEW YORK CITY/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to be named the Democratic presidential nominee, according to three Arab-American analysts.
Biden, who backed Harris in her announcement of her withdrawal on Sunday, is trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls amid a growing #AbandonBiden movement among Arab Americans and broader calls for him to drop out of the 2024 race after his disastrous performance at a June 27 debate in Atlanta.
What was once a celebration for the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has turned into an open contest as nearly 4,700 party delegates will vote in each state to choose their nominee to challenge Trump, the Republican nominee.
Rana Abtar, host of the Washington, D.C.-based talk show Asharq News, expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, although other candidates could be considered as well. However, she believes Democrats “have to show unity” if they are to win the November election.
“Today, what we are noticing is that Democrats are starting to support Harris one by one,” she told Arab News. “There are some delegates in a couple of states who have already voted in favor of Kamala Harris. That means their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.”
The remaining Democrats who have not yet endorsed Harris are expected to join the cause soon. At some point, we will see all or a majority of Democrats lining up to support Harris. It is crucial for Democrats to show unity after their party faced a tough patch following President Biden's announcement that he will not seek a second term.
Biden's withdrawal from the race allows delegates from all 50 states and provinces across the country to support any candidate during the convention. Several other candidates have been nominated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Abtar said Harris is popular with African-American voters, a traditional pillar of Democratic support, and many also see her as part of the Biden administration’s policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arab and Muslim voters in key state primaries voted for “noncommitted” or “no vote” options instead of voting for the president.
“Harris is not very popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “Many Democrats are concerned that her chances of beating Trump are equal to President Biden’s chances of beating Trump. We will certainly see Harris come out and talk to voters in the coming days and weeks because in her role as vice president, she has not spoken directly to Americans in many ways.
“Biden gave her an issue of immigration, which puts her in a very difficult position, especially given that the main Republican attacks on Democrats are on immigration and border security.
“But I believe the most important thing here is not Harris, but who she chooses as her running mate, because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are often seen as “election killers,” or people who could take away votes from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy’s numbers are quite high for an independent candidate, and his voters could make a difference in the election season by pulling votes from… Trump or Harris… if she is officially nominated,” Abtar said.
Any person being nominated to be Biden's running mate could be nominated as vice president, including Pritzker, a billionaire with similar presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudalali, former U.N. ambassador and CEO of Bridges International Group, thinks Harris has a “perception problem.”
“People think she’s not a strong vice president, she’s not going to be a strong candidate, she’s not going to be a strong candidate, she’s not going to beat Trump,” she told Arab News.
While Democrats appear to be moving quickly to rally support for Harris, including the endorsement of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudalli remains cautious.
“It’s still very much a mystery because there are still a lot of influential Democrats who are openly calling for a convention and for everyone to have a say and see if they can come up with the strongest Democratic candidate to beat Trump,” she said.
She added that the impact of independent candidates in the elections could not be ruled out either.
“In a very close election, an independent candidate can do a lot of damage because this is a very close election — you’re talking about a couple thousand votes or a thousand votes — which can make or break a campaign,” Mudalali said.
“Imagine if Kennedy could get a lot of Democratic votes, the Democrats could be affected more, and that would be a big problem for them.”
“But at this point, we don’t know who the Democratic nominee is going to be. If he’s a very strong candidate, the party could potentially rally supporters who would vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate. In that case, an independent wouldn’t make a difference.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes Harris is almost certain to replace Biden as the nominee, and suggests Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate in the first “all-female” presidential race.
“Speculation has focused on who her vice presidential running mate will be, and the possibility that she will choose Whitmer as an all-female presidential candidate, which is unprecedented and risky, but Whitmer could help shape the pivotal state of Michigan, and an all-female candidate could help reinvigorate a demoralized Democratic base,” he told Arab News.
“Harris’s approval rating with the American public has never been higher, but right now, the decision by the Democrats and President Biden to nominate her is largely based on funding and finances. She is the only one who will have access to all the hundreds of millions of dollars raised, so her running mate is also important in terms of winning back the Democratic base and for the general favorability of Democratic candidates,” he added.
Maksad believes Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, and speculation about Whitmer being added to the ballot, could sway Michigan’s large Arab and Muslim population, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary.
“Arab Americans are not a homogeneous group,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities across four battleground states. Michigan is getting a lot of attention, but so are Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, a state of 100,000 people, they have strong feelings about the war in Gaza and President Biden not doing enough to stop it. Biden leaving gives Democrats another chance to intervene among the Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president-elect becomes Michigan governor, Democrats have a much better chance of intervening and winning Michigan again as a key battleground state.”
