Trump campaign projects confidence and looks to young male voters for an edge on Harris

GLENDALE, Ariz.: Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, drew thousands of supporters to campaign rallies as the Democratic nominee continues his campaign in battleground states.
As Beyoncé’s “Freedom” blared through the stadium, Harris walked onto the stage to cheers and boos from the crowd of 15,000.
“As exciting as this is, we must not lose sight of the real truth: We are definitely at a disadvantage,” Harris said. “We are at a disadvantage. We are at a significant disadvantage, but we still have a lot of work to do.”
The rally was held in a state represented by Democratic U.S. Senate Rep. Mark Kelly, who Harris skipped out on as a running mate. The former astronaut and gun control advocate has been a front-runner in the race before, winning two tough runoff elections in politically divided Arizona.
Harris could also lose the chance to win over someone like Gonzalo Leyva, a 49-year-old landscaper in Phoenix. Leyva had intended to vote for former President Donald Trump, a Republican, but said he would support a Harris-Kelly ticket.
“I like Kelly 100 times more,” said Leyva, a lifelong Democrat who became an independent at the start of Trump’s term. “I don’t think he’s as extreme as some of the others.”
In Arizona, every vote counts. Arizona has always had close races, including in 2020 when President Joe Biden beat Trump by less than 11,000 votes. Both parties are bracing for a close race this year.
“These last few months will feel like years, and it’s hard to see someone winning by a large margin,” said Constantine Gerard, a veteran Republican strategist in the state.
Harris acknowledged the race will be tight, and she and Walz visited the campaign office in North Phoenix on Friday afternoon and thanked volunteers who had made signs with messages like “This Mamala is voting for Kamala” and “Kamala and the coach” (Walz used to be a high school football coach).
“It’s going to be a lot of work,” Harris told volunteers about his November victory.
Democrats have expressed confidence that Harris remains in a solid position in the state even without Kelly on the ballot. The senator is expected to continue to strongly support Harris and has been mentioned as a potential Cabinet member or other key role if the vice president becomes president. Kelly is expected to attend the Arizona rally.
“Not picking Kelly doesn’t diminish my support for Harris,” said Stacy Pearson, a Democratic strategist in Phoenix. She said she felt the same enthusiasm for the new ballot that had led to large crowds greeting Harris and Walz at earlier stops on their tour, including the home of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a former runner-up.
Another Democratic strategist in Arizona, DJ Quinlan, agreed. “There’s a lot of interest. It’s the closest I’ve felt to 2008,” he said of former President Barack Obama’s first run, which excited Democratic voters.
Arizona is a magnet for Midwesterners looking to escape the cold, so many observers say Walz could still play well there. Scott Snyder, who moved to Phoenix from Detroit three years ago, isn't familiar with Kelly's background or politics but said Harris made the right decision in picking Walz.
“He reminds me so much of my dad,” said Snyder, an electrician. “You’ve seen pictures of him as a high school football coach. That resonates with me. You’ve seen him out there duck hunting. That’s a common thing in Michigan, where I’m from.”
Arizona has always been Republican until Trump's political campaign became a national issue.
In 2016, Trump won the Arizona primary and quickly feuded with former Republican Sen. John McCain, the state's political icon. The event caused many educated, moderate Republicans to abandon the Republican Party and join the Democratic Party in key elections.
In 2018, Democrats won the state’s open Senate race, paving the way for Kelly’s 2020 victory and Biden’s victory there as well. In 2022, Kelly won again, and Democrats swept the state’s top three elections for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, defeating Republican candidates who embraced Trump’s policies and lies about fraud that cost him the 2020 presidential election.
The same voters who have supported Democrats in the state in recent cycles remain largely indifferent to Trump, said Republican strategist and former McCain aide Chuck Coughlin.
“Trump has done nothing to accommodate this constituency,” he said.
The campaign is fighting in familiar territory in Arizona, on the border with Mexico. Trump and his allies have attacked Biden over the influx of migrants during his tenure and are shifting their attacks to Harris.
“For us, it was easy to shift focus and focus on her,” said Dave Smith, chairman of the Pima County Republican Party.
Kari Lake, who is running against Ruben Gallego for a Democratic Senate seat in Arizona, released an ad last week attacking Gallego for supporting what the ad calls Biden and Harris' “extreme border agenda,” featuring repeated clips of the vice president laughing.
On Thursday, Lake argued to reporters that Harris was less popular than Biden in Arizona. “They like Kamala Harris even less,” Lake said. “They understand she’s not doing anything at the border.”
Meanwhile, Harris is targeting the state’s rapidly growing Latino population with her own ads highlighting how Harris, the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants, rose to the top of American politics.
Harris's background and youth could re-enter the presidential race in Arizona and other Sun Belt states, which had previously been dominated by only three “blue wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
While Arizona has a large young population, it is also known for its large elderly community. Pearson argues that Biden’s age, 81, puts him at a disadvantage in the state.
“My fellow retirees were the first to say this is not okay,” Pearson said of Biden’s age. “I’m much more optimistic with Harris and Walz in the leadership group.”